Key Messages
Avoiding Lion Lunch: Exploring The Traps Of Fallacious Thinking And Mental Biases
Often times, we believe that we are rational and that our decision-making is sound.
Unfortunately, this isn’t the case!
Our brains contain many shortcuts and rules-of-thumb that have been developed over time to help our ancient ancestors stay alive longer.
But in today’s world these same habits can lead to fallacies and biases that can do more harm than good.
The Art of Thinking Clearly will provide you with information on how to recognize your irrational tendencies every day.
You’ll learn about the mistakes people make due to self-doubt or wanting too much of something so badly that it clouds their judgement.
Plus, you’ll see examples of how a shining or lack thereof can inflate stock prices and why most French men mistakenly believe they are better lovers than the average Joe.
Last but not least, you will learn why it may be better for your chances with the opposite sex if you don’t bring your hunkiest friend out with you.
So get reading and start finding out just how irrational you really are every day!
We All Have A Tendency To Overestimate Our Abilities And Take Credit For Successes
We’ve all been there: overestimating our abilities and attributing successes to our own skills.
It’s a common phenomenon that is seen in many areas of life, from self-appraisal to exams.
Research has shown that a large number of people tend to delude themselves into thinking that they are better than others; for example, 84 percent of Frenchmen rate their performance in the bedroom as above average when only 50 percent of them can be considered true outliers from the norm.
This cognitive bias is further highlighted by the 93 percent of US students who consider themselves above-average drivers or the 68 percent of University of Nebraska faculty, who rank their own teaching abilities in the top quartile.
These numbers demonstrate how people generally overestimate their knowledge and incorrectly attribute successes to their own skill set, while unjustly blaming external factors when they fail at something.
Experiments conducted by researchers have demonstrated this hypothesis in action – when given an arbitrary score on a personality test, those with good scores believed it accurately represented their great personalities while those with bad scores deemed it useless garbage.
It’s important to keep these facts in mind as we navigate through life so we can move past this tendency to inflate our sense of self worth due to overestimation of our abilities.
One way we can do this is by getting feedback from friends and asking for honest opinions about our strengths and weaknesses
The Illusion Of Control: Why We All Need Placebo Buttons To Feel In Control
It is often surprising to find out just how little control and power we have, or think we have, over circumstances in life.
Studies have shown that we may be under the illusion of control in believing we can influence things we cannot control anyway.
A great example of this was seen in a study where participants were subjected to levels of noise; it was found that those with a “panic button” could withstand more noise than those without one – even though the button was merely illusory, offering no real control.
Furthermore, oftentimes our predictions about events are not nearly as accurate as we believe – for instance an experiment where 28,361 predictions from 284 experts across different disciplines only performed slightly better than random chance.
From these two examples mentioned above then, it becomes very clear that in life – contrary to what many presume – most of us are controlling and predicting much less than what we think.
Despite this reality, however, understanding how little actual control or success rate there is in predicting helps us to focus on those few aspects of life that ultimately matter the most.
How Social Proof Can Make Or Break Us: The Power Of The Herd Instinct
Our minds and behaviour are rooted deeply in the methods used by our ancestors.
We have a natural tendency to copy the behavior of those around us, doing whatever we can to fit in and avoid exclusion.
This is called social proof, and it impacts us in almost every situation – from fashion choices to decisions about investments.
For our ancestors, this “herd mentality” was critical for survival – if you followed along with the group when there was danger, you had a much better chance of surviving it.
And today, that instinct is still ingrained in us, meaning that we continue to follow what others do without questioning it.
We don’t want to be excluded from the group, even if what they’re suggesting isn’t necessarily good or true.
This can be seen in all kinds of situations – whether we’re at a concert or a meeting at work.
Even in financial matters like stock market panic or business strategy planning sessions, people will conform their opinions so as not to complicate things and allow everyone else’s views to carry through as if they were some kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.
In the case of Swissair, this “groupthink” saw them miss out on warning signs that would have prevented them from going bankrupt.
It’s important for us to remember that it’s okay to go against social proof sometimes and trust our own instincts; being independent thinkers has its merits too!
Understanding The Colors Of Our Confirmation Bias And How To Avoid Being Hoisted Upon It
We have an inherent inclination to interpret the information we receive in a way that conforms to our self-image and our existing beliefs.
This phenomenon is referred to as confirmation bias.
It’s so common, it’s often referred as “the mother of all misconceptions”.
One example of this is when we go online on our preferred news sites or blogs in search of analysis and opinion on recent events, failing to remember that these sites usually reflect our own values and provide the comfort of like-minded people.
Similarly, if we seek external validation about ourselves, we accept the input that aligns with how we want to perceive ourselves and reject any discrepancies from that image.
This scenario was demonstrated through a study completed by psychologist Bertram Forer.
He crafted fake readings based on astrology columns from various magazines and told his students that these were tailored for them personally.
Upon rating them after completion, his students rated them around 86 percent accuracy!
This has since been dubbed the ‘Forer effect’ due to its revelation that we grapple with reality so as to fit in with what’s going on inside us rather than see it objectively.
It’s clear then, that understanding this predisposition is essential when forming opinions – only upon acknowledging the interference of confirmation bias can one explore diverse solutions and standpoints instead of getting stuck in constructive loops reinforcing their pre-existing convictions.
How Comparison And Scarcity Bias Can Lead Us To Poor Decisions
In The Art Of Thinking Clearly, we learn that our brain has a tendency to assess the value of things based on comparisons.
This can come into play when we meet someone at a club and they’re far more attractive than us.
In this situation, we appear less attractive by comparison but in reality, it’s all just an illusion.
We also see this comparison process at work with discounts.
People perceive something reduced from $100 to $70 to have better value than one that has always cost $70 even though it makes no difference in the product’s actual value.
The same is true for scarcity; if we receive only two cookies instead of an entire box, then we’re likely to rate them much higher than those who got the full box.
Businesses have capitalized on this phenomenon by creating the sense that there are limited items available for purchase – you’ve likely seen phrases like “today only” or “while supplies last” before.
Overall, understanding how our brains work in terms of determining value helps us to make better choices by looking solely at its costs and benefits rather than making comparisons to others or judging things based on their availability.
Our Preference For Anecdotes Over Data Prevents Us From Making Accurate Judgments
As humans, we tend to be most attracted to interesting things; whether it be a story or an exotic explanation for something.
For example, think about the headline of a person getting stabbed and fatally injured – chances are that we would assume it was caused by some foreign illegal importer of combat knives instead of a middle-class American, even though the latter is much more likely!
The media further reflects this preference in their reporting.
If a bridge collapses due to faulty engineering, media outlets tend to focus on the unfortunate driver rather than talking about the underlying details of what happened to cause the accident.
This shows how juicy facts often take precedence over relevant information.
Doctors are also taught not to let their imaginations run wild with any kind of exotic diseases when they’re assessing an illness – they’d rather stick to mundane explanations since these are more probable.
This can have potentially fatal consequences if overlooked!
Hence comes the motto: “when you hear hoof beats, don’t expect a zebra”.
Our Attention Is Easily Overstretched And We Are Subject To Illusion And External Influences
Our attention is incredibly selective and narrow.
We tend to pay more attention to what is presented first or last, while the middle parts of a stream of information become less relevant to us.
Take, for example, a Harvard study where subjects were watching a video with people passing basketballs around; in the middle of it, someone dressed as a gorilla walked into the room, pounded his chest and then left.
Despite this strange scene unfolding right in front of them, most viewers failed to even notice it!
This illustrates why we shouldn’t use cellphones when driving or operating machinery – because our attention will be overstretched and we won’t be able to react quickly enough in case of sudden danger.
This selective and narrow focus can also lead us astray when making decisions.
For instance, if you are asked which of two identical people you’d rather be stuck in an elevator with; you may choose one over the other simply due to your initial impressions shaping your overall assessment – this is referred to as ‘The Primacy Effect’.
Whereas if your impressions were formed sometime ago then ‘The Recency Effect’ kicks in causing you to remember what came at the end instead!
Too Much Choice Can Lead To Decision Fatigue And Unwise Decisions
Making decisions can be incredibly exhausting, especially when we are presented with many possible options.
Studies have shown that too much choice can lead to an inability to make a decision at all.
For example, researchers conducted an experiment in one supermarket promoting discounted jelly products.
On the first day, they offered 24 different flavors of jelly, but on the second day they reduced this selection to just six varieties.
As it turns out, customers bought ten times more jelly on day two than they did on the first day.
This suggests that too much choice led to an inability to make a decision and encouraged customers not to buy anything at all.
Further research has shown that decision-making can also have a physical effect on fatigue and willpower.
To test this hypothesis, one study grouped people together and presented them with pairs of items where some had to deliberate over which was preferred while others just wrote their thoughts.
Then both groups were asked to put their hands into icy water for as long as possible afterward; the group who deliberated about their choices earlier kept their hands submerged for a shorter amount of time than those who wrote down their thoughts or made no decision– indicating that deliberating between choices took a toll on their willpower.
The takeaway from this is clear: making decisions requires energy and making difficult decisions requires even more energy.
Knowing this beforehand will help us manage our choices better and come to satisfactory outcomes with less strain or exhaustion.
The Halo Effect: How Good Looks And Charm Can Influence The Way We Perceive Others
We all have an unconscious predisposition to think more highly of people who are attractive, flattering, or remind us of ourselves.
That’s why you often see beautiful, smiling faces all around from businesses trying to capture our attention.
It’s the so-called ‘halo effect’.
Beautiful people are automatically seen as more pleasant, honest and intelligent and this has been identified in both schools and workplaces – where attractive people can easily enjoy easier professional lives as teachers unconsciously give them better grades.
But this ‘halo effect’ isn’t limited to looks.
When nationality, gender or race becomes the primary factor that influences how we judge another person it is a form of stereotyping.
Though it’s not just racists and sexists that fall victim to this – we all have a tendency to make quick judgements on others by using one single feature like the new CEO of your company being an attractive female.
We may think that is was her looks rather than outstanding leadership skills or education that got her the job instead of looking at all other possibilities.
Another form of bias when liking someone is called the “liking bias” where if someone is similar to us or likes us then we tend to be drawn towards them even more.
This is why salespeople use techniques such as flattery such as saying you look amazing in that dress!
This then creates positive emotions within us which then makes us more inclined to buying something from them since they have made us feel good by complimenting us.
And also mirroring – they copy your gestures like facial expressions etc so they appear more similar or agreeable making us fondly disposed towards them leading up to closing a deal successfully.
We Are Not Always Rational Decision Makers: Our Emotions Limit Our Ability To Make Sound Judgments
When it comes to making decisions, people often rely more on their emotions and mental shortcuts than on a truly rational approach.
That’s why when it comes to contemplating things such as genetically modified food, one might jump straight to conclusions at the sound of the words without first considering pros and cons in terms of importance and probability.
Evidence for these emotions playing out in our daily life decisions is everywhere – from stock market performance being affected by morning sunshine, to us not having the time or energy to make meticulous assessments.
Our feelings guide our decisions much more than we think.
And that does make it quite difficult for us to make rational decisions in areas where rationality is highly valued; we are so easily influenced by our underlying emotions!
So next time you’re tempted to make a snap decision, take a moment and see if your feelings are influencing you in any way.
You may be surprised to find they’re playing a much bigger role than you anticipated.
Wrap Up
The final takeaway from The Art of Thinking Clearly, is that we all overestimate our abilities, automatically seek out information that confirms us in our pre-existing beliefs, have a preference for the exotic and beautiful people and a small rather than a large selection of things, and are guided by our emotions and by the way that people around us behave.
To get an honest opinion of yourself, have someone you know (or even someone who is not so friendly with you) come over for coffee to state their honest opinion on your strengths and weaknesses.
Additionally, whenever you encounter sales pitches like “limited time only” remember to focus on the benefits it provides rather than its scarcity.
By keeping these points in mind, readers can start to better assess their decisions intelligently and make clearer judgments about life’s challenges.
