Key Messages
Unlocking The Economics Of Soccer: How Data And Science Can Win A Penalty Kick
Have you ever wondered why a soccer player might score a penalty kick or not? Or if the skill of the players, the goalkeeper or something else entirely is what decides it?
Well, in Beautiful Game Theory: How Soccer Can Help Us Reimagine Economics, you’ll discover how economic thinking plays out on the soccer field, unlocking intriguing answers to such questions.
You’ll learn why it’s always beneficial to kick first during a penalty shoot-out and get an insight into why referees tend to favour the home team.
Plus, this book even reveals how abstract economic theories can be verified through analyzing soccer data, helping you uncover new models of human behaviour and completely re-imagining the significance of soccer matches.
So pick up this book now and discover the economic thinking behind the penalty kick!
How Soccer Helps Us Understand Economics Through John Neumann’S Minimax Theorem
The minimax theorem is essential to understanding the strategies players use in zero-sum games.
This theorem states that, in a two-player game of this sort, players will choose strategies that aim to minimize their opponent’s maximum possible payoff.
To clarify, if only one player can win in a situation, each player’s strategy consists of minimizing their opponent’s winnings.
There are two types of strategies commonly employed when implementing this theorem: pure and mixed.
Pure strategies mean that a player always chooses the same move each round (like playing Rock every time).
A mixed strategy usually involves variations between Rock, Paper and Scissors.
What makes the minimax theorem so useful is its hypothesis: when it’s unfavorable for the other person to know your choice ahead of time, you gain an advantage by using random strategies.
If both people play a mixed strategy, they’ll have equal chances at winning every game.
Therefore, if both players randomly choose between Rock, Paper and Scissors each game then they should both win 50% of the time!
The minimax theorem provides a highly reliable form of prediction for how players act and what strategies they implement in these types of situations— making it an essential tool to understand these interactions better!
How Soccer Penalty Kicks Verified The Minimax Theorem
Penalty kicks in soccer offer the perfect opportunity to put John von Neumann’s minimax theorem to the test.
The theorem, introduced back in 1928, holds that each player will choose a strategy that maximizes their own payoff while minimizing the opponent’s payoff.
In the case of penalty kicks, we have two players: a kicker and a goalie.
Each has their own strategy – kick left, right or centre; jump left, right or stay in centre – that they can choose independently from one another.
This means we can calculate whether or not the players are following minimax’s predictions of playing mixed strategies with an equal chance of success for all strategies used.
Analysis of approximately 9,000 international league penalty kicks shows us that this is exactly what happens – the odds of success don’t depend on which side the kicker chooses but is consistent regardless at about 80%.
Additionally, it appears that kickers employ neither pure nor sequential strategies and choose their next shot at random, again verifying Neumann’s predictions from his minimax theorem by responding independently of previous choices and outcomes.
The Penalty Shoot-Out: An Ideal Tool For Analyzing Competitive Behavior
A penalty shoot-out is an interesting way of combining economics and psychology in a real-world setting.
Economists and psychologists use the environment of the kick to better understand decisions.
By looking at how different people tackle a one-on-one situation in a tournament environment, they can begin to analyze strategies and what factors influence success.
Tournaments provide unique opportunities to study the psychological side of competition, however, traditional settings often lack clarity when measuring strategic outcomes.
Penalty kicks offer an ideal way to fill this gap as it reduces all variables down to the outcome (the shot) and psychological factors, such as shooting first or second.
What’s more is that data from penalty kicks remains reliable due to its randomized kicking order which comes from flipping a coin – 97 percent of all professional players chose to kick first because of this randomness.
This randomness is key for driving credible data about biopsychology, emotion and performance analysis.
Does Kicking Order In A Penalty Shoot-Out Have An Effect On Performance? Investigating The Role Of Pressure On Referees And Players
The Beautiful Game Theory Book provides invaluable insight into the dynamics of penalty shoot-outs.
According to research, there is a substantial advantage for the team who kicks first because of psychological pressure.
To put it simply, athletes performing in front of the same audience and with the same stakes tend to find themselves under tremendous pressure if they are kicking second.
This phenomenon can be seen reflected in national and international tournaments since 1970-2014, where 60.6 percent of wins were on behalf of the first team while only 39.4 percent belonged to the second team.
It’s also notable that these results occur regardless of who won the coin toss.
That’s because players seem to know instinctively that it makes more sense to go first than second in terms of gaining an advantage.
However, not all hope is lost as studies have shown that by changing the order from ABAB to ABBABAAB (the Prouhet-Thue-Morse sequence) one greatly equalizes winning chances – between 50% and 51%.
In other words, a change in the pattern can lead to more balanced results which would suggest psychological influences are largely at play here.
Therefore, it is clear that much like other “beautiful” games, psychological pressure plays a role in penalty shoot-outs by giving an advantage to teams who kick first.
How Social Pressure Can Unconsciously Influence Referees And Other Fans On The Soccer Field
Social pressure has a direct effect on the referee when it comes to deciding how much injury time is added at the end of a game.
If the home team has more at stake, like in tournament finals, then the referee will be more likely to give them an extra advantage.
This was confirmed by a review of Spanish soccer matches which showed that the more rewards for winning, the greater the bias for the home team.
Furthermore, research has found that if the difference in score is greater than one point, there’s a systematic favoritism from the referee towards them.
The statistical mean for extra time added due to injuries or interruptions is 2.93 minutes in the second half of a game, but this can change depending on how close or far away each team is from winning or losing.
For example, if the home team is leading by only one goal, injury time will be around 1 or 2 minutes (29% lower than average).
However, if they’re behind by one goal it increases to around 4 minutes (35% higher than average).
How Risk Changes Our Behavior: Exploring The Connection Between Fear And Incentives
Recent research has shown that there is a connection between controlling fear and the incentives we receive as benefits – i.e.
the cost/benefit of exerting control over our emotions.
This means that if we measure what benefit people expect to receive from controlling their fear, then we can actually predict how they’re going to act in a fearful situation.
One example of this is seen in the data from the Palestinian Intifada between 2000 and 2005.
It showed that only those Israelis who used goods or services on a less frequent basis felt influenced by terrorist attacks, such as going out to restaurants, shopping malls, and cafés.
In contrast, those who regularly went to such places remained unaffected by terrorist attacks since they were already accustomed to risk and more likely to take control of their fear of this regular situation based on the costs and benefits associated with it.
In essence, individuals will predictably control their fear of a regular situation based on their costs and benefits.
Soccer Data Confirms The Prediction Of The Becker-Rubinstein Model That We Can Control Our Fears, But Not Necessarily Our Ability To Accurately Assess Objective Risk
A recent study shows that hooliganism affects soccer fans differently, making it harder to explain through statistical analysis.
The Becker-Rubinstein model was verified by looking at the ticket sales data from45 seasons in the Spanish League from 1951 to 1995.
167 events of hooliganism were recorded and 334 matches used for before and after analysis.
What the researchers found was interesting: Married people responded more strongly than singles to acts of violence and hooliganism, likely due to fear of putting their marriage at risk if they go out too often.
In fact, a 40 percent difference in renewal rates between single and married individuals occurred after one particularly violent soccer season.
Furthermore, single-ticket buyers’ attendance dropped by as much as 40 percent after acts of violence and only 51 percent of married people actually renewed their tickets – showing us that their emotional investment in marriage outweighed their interest in attending games.
The findings also showed that single season-ticket holders were hardly affected by violence; 94 percent renewed their season tickets after acts of violences, compared to 95 percent among high education (5-6 year college degree) group and only 75% from low education (high school diploma).
This data indicates that better educated people are not necessarily better at assessing objective risk, which makes explanations about ticket sales even more difficult.
Wrap Up
The Beautiful Game Theory by Paul Jackson shows us how economic behavior can be understood by looking at soccer.
By analyzing the penalty kick, referees’ preferences, and ticket sales, it provides a clear and insightful look at how the game of soccer can provide valuable life lessons.
The key takeaway from this book is that we can gain a great deal of understanding about our global economies through these examples.
By taking note of the context and strategies employed in soccer, we can apply them to everyday situations in order to make more sound decisions as individuals.
